WASHINGTON — State Sen. Cleo Fields will become Louisiana’s second Black Democratic congressman — unless the analysts are very wrong.
At least two polls show Fields, D-Baton Rouge, hovering near 50% of the vote, indicating the former congressman could win without a runoff on Nov. 5.
Flipping a seat once held by a White Republican — Baton Rouge’s Garret Graves — is not that significant in the national scheme of things even though the GOP holds its U.S. House majority by only four seats. Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District race was already factored in to what is proving a very close contest for the House majority.
If the Republicans maintain their majority, Mike Johnson, the Louisiana Republican from Benton, remains speaker. Should Democrats win at least 218 of the 435 House seats, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-New York, will assume that role.
Johnson said the key to keeping Republicans in charge hinges on the blue states of California and New York. Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, the second-in-command Republican from Jefferson, have hit the road campaigning for GOP candidates.
“The House Republican majority runs through California, where our battle-tested incumbents and strong candidates will help us keep and grow the majority,” Johnson said after completing a campaign swing through that state last week.
California, like New York, is controlled by Democrats who primarily live close to the coasts. Much of the interior of both states, though not as populated therefore accounting for fewer House seats, are predominantly Republican.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, a national handicapper, counts 27 races as tossups — 12 held by Democrats, 15 by Republicans. Four of those Republican seats are in New York and five are in California. Many of the tossup Republicans won in 2022 from districts that had voted for Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020.
Louisiana’s situation is different. The Legislature created a second congressional district with voters more likely to support a Black candidate, arguing that if they didn’t draw the map, the federal courts would.
Instead of choosing to create a more geographically compact Black majority district, legislators made the political decision to sacrifice Graves, who had angered both Gov. Jeff Landry and Scalise. The Legislature in January strung together Black neighborhoods as well as biracial towns struggling with the negative financial consequences of prolonged depopulation from Baton Rouge to Shreveport.
The U.S. Supreme Court allowed the Legislature’s map to be used for the Nov. 5 congressional elections. Justices Friday were slated to discuss behind closed doors for a second time how to handle a challenge to the Legislature’s configuration. They could announce a decision sometime this week, but that wouldn’t impact congressional elections until 2026 at the earliest and maybe not until 2028.
This race for the new 6th District attracted five candidates, all Black males, all but one Democratic.
Vantage Data House, a Shreveport concern that tracks polls nationally on a daily basis, shows Fields leads former state Sen. Elbert Guillory, R-Opelousas, by 16 points and community activist Quentin Anderson, D-Baton Rouge, by 31 points with 25% of voters undecided. The other two candidates, Wilken Jones Jr. and Peter Williams, both Baton Rouge Democrats, polled negligibly.
Fields has substantial name recognition and a lot more money. Fields holds a 5-to-1 advantage over Anderson and a 10-to-1 lead over Guillory among African American voters. Guillory may lead Fields 49% to 16% among White voters, but African Americans make up 55% of the likely electorate.
Vantage was cofounded by Jim Kitchens, who was Gov. John Bel Edwards’ campaign pollster, and longtime political researcher Bishop George. Like Spotify does with songs, Vantage gathers comprehensive polling and sells the data to political professionals.
“Republicans are holding onto what I call the ‘December Delusion’ — the notion that if they can force a runoff, low turnout in December will open a door for them, especially in a district where 55% of likely voters are African American and the Democratic candidate is a seasoned veteran,” Vantage wrote in an analysis for subscribers last week. “My prediction? This race ends on November 5th.”
New Orleans pollster Greg Rigamer agrees.
“Cleo has substantial name recognition. Guillory is running well with Republicans. But Cleo is running substantially better among African American voters. He has White votes as well,” said Rigamer, who has conducted three polls on the race for Baton Rouge lobbyist Alton Ashy — the last one completed Wednesday.
“He’s literally right under 50%,” Rigamer said Thursday. “I think Cleo will win in the primary.”