OK, it was another less-than-spectacular go-round in Week 11, but I did some research, and I apparently have done well during Turkey Day week. I am determined to keep that streak alive, because I certainly don’t want anything to do with the streak of the past 2 weeks.
Let’s get to random thoughts …
No. 1: For some reason, the word of the week seemed to be “special.” As in everyone and everything is and was special. “Jalen Hurts is special.” “These San Francisco 49ers are special.” I even had a colleague text me Sunday, “Man, this Texans’ offense is special” right before CJ Stroud was intercepted three times and Houston got stuck in neutral for an entire half vs. a really bad Arizona defense.
Merriam-Webster defines the word “special,” as “distinguished by some unusual quality” or “readily distinguished from others of a same category,” among other definitions, so I guess all of the above statements fit the word. Sort of.
Just seems like when we use a word like “special” so many times it becomes a tad ordinary. Can’t we save it for when the Jets connect on their next touchdown? Now THAT would be special.
No. 2: Speaking of the Jets, I have lost faith in Coach Robert Saleh. Did it really take him 11 weeks to figure out Zach Wilson wasn’t the answer? I mean, seriously, they would have been better off talking 68-year-old Phil Simms or 62-year-old Boomer Esiason out of retirement.
Go get ’em Tim Boyle!
No. 3: I am sure it’s happened and I am just having old-man brain, but I don’t remember the last time an offensive coordinator was fired midseason, and now we have had two in a week with Matt Canada being shown the door.
Apparently, the Saints don’t watch the news, because they don’t realize this actually is an option.
Lastly: I was trying to think of something random to say that would be cutesy about Thanksgiving like “I hope your card isn’t full of turkeys,” or “may you have a smorgasbord of winners this weekend,” but nothing worthy ever came out. However, I was successful in going through an entire picks column without using the word “tryptophan.” (Unless you’re counting that one.)
In all seriousness, all I really hope for you besides winners is that Aunt Judy’s kids don’t want to show you their dance routine in front of the TV during a potential game-winning drive.
Enough of all that. Let’s see what game-winning drives we potentially could miss this weekend. (And Happy Thanksgiving!)
NOTES: All spreads, money lines and over/under totals (as of late Tuesday evening) are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com. Home team is listed in CAPS.
WEEK 12: THE TOP 5 BEST BETS
Byes: None
1, Over 44 in Tampa Bay at INDIANAPOLIS game / Sunday at noon
Just as I hated the Bucs offense last week against the 49ers defense, which put us on the Tampa Bay under team total 14.5, it’s almost an exact opposite this week. The problem is I don’t trust them enough to cover as they continue their long stretch away from home.
A deeper dive into this one also shows Tampa is battling significant injuries on defense – linebacker Lavonte David, cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis and safety Ryan Neal – which should give Gardner Minshew a big boost in throwing the football. (But the Colts can’t stop Baker Mayfield, either.)
Remember 3 weeks ago when the Bucs went to Houston and posted 37 points in a loss? I don’t think it will be that high scoring, but this seems like an awfully low number for two defenses that aren’t very good and are having issues.
Score: Colts (-2.5) 31, Bucs 27
2, 3-team, 7-point teaser (+120)
Teaser explanation: At most books, a bettor can parlay three teams in a “teaser” and get 7 points of cushion for each bet. All three legs must hit to cash the ticket, which in this case, a $10 bet would bet a $12 profit. (There also are two-team teasers at 6 points, which potentially would cost a bettor $12.50 to win $10.)
Leg 1 / New Orleans (+7) over ATLANTA / Sunday at noon
I went back and forth here, and I desperately tried to pick the Falcons.
“Why in God’s name would you want to pick Atlanta, Derry?” It’s simple really: There isn’t a team in the NFL that cannot stand prosperity more than the New Orleans Saints. A win here, coupled with a Buccaneers loss, would give the Black and Gold a two-game lead in the NFC South. Who really thinks this team will be able to seize such an opportunity?
Also, the uncertainty at quarterback with Derek Carr in concussion protocol and the impending absence of Marshon Lattimore gave me even more pause. (Yes, I skipped over Michael Thomas. Does him being on IR affect anything?)
But then I realized the Falcons are a mirror image of these Saints, but worse. While their defense has played well, they have no clue what to do on offense. Their best player – rookie running back Bijan Robinson – is incredibly underused by one of the worst head coaches in the NFL, and now Desmond Ridder is back at QB. (For Saints fans who hate Carr and Jameis Winston, imagine Ridder and Taylor Heinicke as your options.)
The Saints have dominated this series as of late, winning six of the past seven and nine of 11), including both games last year with Dennis Allen as coach. They also have won five consecutive games in Atlanta.
Close, ugly game with potentially four-plus combined turnovers, but no matter who plays quarterback for New Orleans, he will be far better than Ridder. Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill play big roles in this one. (Well, if the Saints are going to win, duh.)
Score: Saints (Pick ’em) 27, Falcons 23 (Total: Over 42)
Leg 2 / CINCINNATI (+8) over Pittsburgh / Sunday at noon
There’s no question Joe Burrow means as much to his team as just about any other player in the NFL except possibly Patrick Mahomes to the Chiefs. That being said, this Bengals team is still better than average, and I’m not quite sure why they are underdogs at home against an overachieving Steelers team.
And now, Pittsburgh has made its first in-season coaching change – in relieving offensive coordinator Matt Canada of his duties – in 82 years. Is that going to change anything? Probably not as long as Kenny Pickett is playing quarterback.
For Bengals new starter Jake Browning, while he will have to watch out for the rush of TJ Watt, he should be able to get something going against the 23rd-ranked passing defense in the NFL.
Getting eight points in a teaser at home seems like a gift, as Cincy hasn’t lost by more than a touchdown at Paul Brown Stadium in more than 2 full years and not to Pittsburgh since 2015. And as for the Steelers, they haven’t won by more than eight points on the road since a 27-3 thrashing of Jacksonville in November 2020 and not in a division game since October 2017 at Baltimore.
Score: Bengals (+1) 20, Steelers 17 (Total: Over 34.5)
Leg 3 / Cleveland (+9.5) over DENVER / Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
Going back to the well here with a Browns team that came through for me in a big way last week with our biggest bet of the season. That being said, this is just plain logic as the third leg of our teaser.
To me, it seems like a “wrong team favored” in the first place, as I get that the Broncos are hot and playing solid defense, but what makes anyone think Russell Wilson will be able to move the ball against the No. 1 defense in the NFL?
I am not rushing out to buy a DTR jersey, but even if my final score prediction is a little off, I think he can do enough to keep it close against the worst run defense in the NFL.
Score: Browns (+2.5) 18, Broncos 13 (Total: Under 35.5)
3, NY JETS (+10) over Miami / Friday at 2 p.m.
Doesn’t it just seem like betting the Dolphins will be the Aunt Mabel play of the week? And what makes the other side so enticing? Well, just about every time it looks like there’s a sure thing in the NFL, the only sure thing is taking the road less traveled.
As I type this, PFF and CBS tell me that 86 percent of the tickets placed through late Tuesday are on Miami -10, which makes this an auto bet on the Jets. That being said, the recent data supports a bet on New York.
What data, you might ask? While we have strayed a ton as of late from our “Golden Rule” that says never take a road favorite in a division game, it’s certainly enforced when the spread is double digits. Not only has the home team covered five straight in the NFL in such a situation, but two of them at the end of the 2021 season – Houston vs. Tennessee and Denver vs. Kansas City – won outright.
By no means do we love Tim Boyle, and some might feel more comfortable betting the under 41, but we expect this fifth-ranked Jets pass defense to be able to limit Tua in the mid-40s temperatures of the Meadowlands. And we love that they’re wearing all black (including black helmets), which may give them an attitude. (We’re looking for any edge we can get.)
If for some reason it got to +9.5, we’d play the under or stay away.
Score: Dolphins 20, Jets 14 (Total: Under 41)
4, DETROIT (-7 at -125) over Green Bay / Thursday at 11:30 a.m.
Anyone who reads this column even on a semi-regular basis knows I don’t make a whole lot of square picks (popular with the general public), but there is only one way to go here, which makes it a best bet.
This spits in the face of a ton of trends. Although the Lions have won four in a row straight up in the series, and earlier this season by 14 in Lambeau (only one of two games the Packers have lost by more than a touchdown), they hadn’t previously won by more than seven against Green Bay since late in the 2018 season.
Oh, and Detroit has a chance to win their fifth consecutive game in the series – something they haven’t done since taking 11 straight from December 1949 to Thanksgiving Day 1954, which was 138 games and 69 years ago.
Still, again, taking the Lions is the only play here. And a good one. They are about to face a stretch of four games out of five away from Ford Field, and it is tough to think this team would put up stinkers in back-to-back games at home against division rivals. (Because let’s face it, they were super lucky to win last week.)
Score: Lions 30, Packers 20 (Total: Over 47)
5, New England (-3) over NY GIANTS / Sunday at noon
The fun for the G-Men was fun while it lasted, wasn’t it? I am still a little bitter I took them out of my best bets last week because the line moved from +10 to +9 before I posted (and then all the way to +7.5). So because of one predictable game, now Drunk Joe wants to jump on the bandwagon?
OK, I get the Patriots are bad and shouldn’t be laying three points on the road to anyone, but this defense should be able to just completely shut down Tommy “Don’t Call Me Danny” DeVito. It’ll be eight men in the box with a spy on Saquon Barkley, and they’ll score 13 to 17 and hope it’s enough. It will be. (So play the under if you’d rather.)
Score: Patriots 16, Giants 6 (Total: Under 33.5)
OTHER PICKS
Thursday at 3:30 p.m.
DALLAS 26, Washington (+11) 17: The Cowboys are home for three in a row, and they have been deadly at Jerry World, winning by an average margin of 27.5. And while I often preach to not overthink things, it just seems like public is going to be all over Dallas. Meanwhile, the Commanders have been more up-and-down than a car on Space Mountain.
Each team has won three out of the past six in the series, although interestingly, only one of those games has been within a touchdown.
Being a double-digit favorite in the NFL has been a mixed bag this season, including for Dallas, which won the past 2 weeks in a row in such a scenario but lost outright by 12 points at Arizona early on.
Don’t be the dummy who thinks he or she HAS to bet every game on Thanksgiving Day just because it’s on TV. This is the definition of a stay-away game, unless you’re putting a buck or two down for fun. (Under 48.5)
Thursday at 7:20 p.m.
San Francisco 22, SEATTLE (+7) 19: There are multiple reasons to stay off the Niners … among them: Everyone and their grandma will be betting on them to catch up for losing with Dallas -11 earlier in the day, San Fran has looked unbeatable again since coming off their bye week, and Geno Smith’s status remains uncertain and running back Kenneth Walker is out.
Another fact backing San Francisco is that not only have they won five straight road division games, but they have won them by an average of 12.6 points per game.
Still, I can’t get past the fact that before the 49ers won the past two games, the Seahawks had won 14 out of 16 in the series. In other words, Pete Carroll knows how to make something out of nothing against this team, and I expect it to be close. And lower scoring. (Under 43)
Sunday at noon
HOUSTON (+1.5) 26, Jacksonville 22: Oddsmakers keep making the Jaguars the favorite in this series, and the Texans keep spanking that keister. And while I wanted to make this a best bet, a look at the Week 3 box score from the game in Jacksonville showed the 37-17 final was quite a bit misleading.
The stats were nearly even, and the Texans took charge on a random kickoff return for a touchdown late in the third quarter that changed everything.
That being said, I am not bucking the trends, as I seem to tell you this twice per year: The Texans simply have the Jaguars’ number, and they have now won 17 of the past 20 games between them straight up. (Under 48.5)
TENNESSEE (-3.5) 19, Carolina 14: In the matchup of the two teams that probably have disappointed me more than any others – I had both of them winning eight or nine games back in August – I want to just say who cares? But it is my job to break down each game, and because I care about trying to have my overall ATS record at .550 or better at the end of the season, I guess I can’t give any away.
With that, I have to lean toward the home team for a couple reasons. First, the Panthers offense can do nothing with Frank Reich calling the plays, which really is perplexing to me. Second, Carolina can’t stop the run, and Derrick Henry has been waiting for a chance to go off. Or at least kind of go off, because I don’t think either one of these teams is capable of doing anything in a big way. (Under 37)
Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
LA Rams (Pick) 28, ARIZONA 20: Eight times out of 10 when I sit down and start working on the week, I can guess a line within a point either way. I was WAY off here. As a result, this game nearly made my best-bets card, but Vegas sees something I don’t.
I still don’t get it, but I am not changing my mind. The Rams should be close to a touchdown better than Arizona, which would get me to -5 or so on the road and then potentially without Cooper Kupp that’s another point. I certainly don’t get to pick ’em.
And past history? The Rams have won 12 of the past 14 matchups, and most of them haven’t been very close. Maybe we’ll be back here and tell you “Oh, that’s why the game was pick ’em,” but I doubt it. (Over 44.5)
Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Buffalo (+3 at +100) 30, PHILADELPHIA 26: First off, I want it to be clear I am not buying back in on the Bills. Firing Ken Dorsey – in the long run – will prove to be a joke of a move and should be the first nail in Sean McDermott’s coffin (whether it be this offseason or the next).
However, this seems like a terrible spot for the Eagles. It’s a short week after winning an emotional game they shouldn’t have won, and it’s sandwiched in between those Kansas City Chiefs and the next 2 weeks against San Francisco and at Dallas.
I’m not investing anything in Josh Allen until he proves he can put together back-to-back solid performances, but it just seems like a spot he can shine. Oh, and if you agree with me, wait until this line gets to +3.5, because it will. (Over 48.5)
Kansas City (-8.5) 34, LAS VEGAS 10: Some of you may be asking: “Hey Derry, if you think it’s going to be THAT lopsided, how come you didn’t make this a best bet?” Well, since you asked, while I was completely impressed in the Raiders’ defensive performance last week and overall under interim coach Antonio Pierce, I’m not buying it.
But I’m not willing to go that far on a limb, either, because I’m not sure the Chiefs will have time to attend their “how to catch a football” clinics before Sunday. (What the hell was that?)
Kansas City has absolutely owned this series the past 10 seasons, winning 17 of the past 19 games straight up and by an average margin of 16.3 points in their three games at Allegiant Stadium. They have also scored 30 points or more in seven consecutive games in the series.
Yeah, I’ll take the pissed-off Chiefs over the feel-good Raiders. (Over 43)
Sunday at 7:20 p.m.
Baltimore (-3.5) 27, LA CHARGERS 17: One has to wonder if the Bolts’ hearts will be in their work much longer. And honestly, how many of them really want their doofus of a coach to stick around?
Against possibly the best team in the AFC – certainly the toughest – how is this soft group of underacheivers going to compete here? AND how will they get to Lamar Jackson without Joey Bosa, who is headed to injured reserve with a foot injury. (By the way, was that dude crying on the cart last week?)
This could be over by halftime. (Under 47)
Monday at 7:15 p.m.
MINNESOTA (-3.5) 23, Chicago 17: Since I knew there was no way I was going to play this game, I just needed one good fact to put me on the side I liked before I did one lick of research, and here it is: Justin Fields is 0-3 lifetime against the Vikings, and the Bears have lost five consecutive games in the series.
That’s it. Anything else you need to know except even if the Bears find a way to take a lead, they’ll just give it away like they did last week in Detroit?
OK, one more thing: Chicago has scored more than 25 points vs. the Vikings once over the past 21 games. They have scored 21 or fewer in 16 of those same games. (Under 43)
_____________________
HOW WE DOIN’?
Note: TIES ARE NOT COUNTED IN MY RECORD, which could result in a different total of games in the “straight up” and “against the spread” categories, as well as with totals.
AGAINST THE SPREAD
Week 11 best bets: 2-3. Season top picks: 30-24 (.556).
Week 11 all picks: 4-9. Season all picks: 85-73 (.537).
STRAIGHT UP (no spread)
Week 11: 8-6. Season: 93-69 (.574).
OVER/UNDER TOTALS
Week 11: 7-7. Season: 94-68 (.580).
SAINTS PICKS
Week 10 pick: Saints 23, Vikings 13. (Actual: Vikings 27, Saints 19.) Straight up: L, 5-5. Against spread (Saints -2.5): L, 5-4. Total (Under 40.5): L, 6-3.