With just about three weeks to go in the race to be East Baton Rouge's next mayor-president, it's all about second place.
Though there will be eight candidates on the ballot, the race essentially is down to three contenders: Democratic incumbent Sharon Weston Broome, Democratic challenger Ted James and Republican outsider and football coach Sid Edwards. The few polls that have been released publicly have put those three consistently well above the others.
Accepted political wisdom says that Broome will make the runoff and finish with the most overall votes.
That pits James against Edwards for that critical second runoff spot. Who finishes there will say a lot about Baton Rouge politics and what kind of race will lead up to Dec. 7.
Edwards, who is the head football coach at Istrouma High School, has sought to build a Republican base by focusing on crime, homelessness and blight. But he is also playing up his relationships in the Black community. In an ad he released this week, Edwards stood on the north Baton Rouge street where one of his players was gunned down and vowed to bring together communities from across the parish.
"We are going to show Baton Rouge what it's like to win," he says in the ad.
But like a high school team that wins its district but doesn't make the Dome, Edwards has a real shot of getting into the runoff but little chance of winning it.
The adage about following the money is instructive. Through last week's campaign finance reporting deadline, Edwards had raised slightly more than $60,000. That's about a tenth of what Broome has raised, and doesn't even come close to James' $1 million haul. It's also far less than what previous Republican candidates for mayor-president have raised at the same point.
The Edwards campaign is getting an assist from an unexpected booster: Sharon Weston Broome.
In the vein of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," Broome has spent her campaign tossing shade at James for his Republican backers, especially those from the breakaway city of St. George. An email that went out last week said "Trump and St. George backers want to control city hall by donating thousands to Ted James!"
"What's not up for debate is my opponent Ted James has sold out to special interests and left his values," the email said.
Broome's rationale here is pretty clear. She wants Edwards in the runoff with her, and it's not hard to see why. In 2016, she defeated experienced and well-funded Republican legislator Bodi White in a runoff with 52%. Four years later against Steve Carter, another veteran Republican lawmaker who had experience and funding, she earned 57%. The trend lines are in her favor.
So if she can force a runoff against Edwards, a newcomer without a lot of money, she wins easily. And to do that, she needs James, a well-known former state representative, to finish third.
If James finishes second, however, Broome's prospects grow significantly tougher. It's not an easy task for him, either.
To make the runoff, James must siphon off enough votes from Broome's Democratic base, plus lure enough Republicans to help him finish second. It's tricky to stitch together such a coalition, but he does have some help: A number of Republicans, including former state Rep. Scott McKnight, are out working the streets for James, and megadonors like Lane Grigsby and Eddie Rispone have donated to his campaign, though Rispone is now supporting Edwards.
McKnight, in particular, has been vocal about saying that a Republican can't win against a Democrat in a runoff for mayor-president.
James will need that crossover support to finish second in three weeks. If he makes the runoff, he could consolidate his Republican support while trying to pick off enough Democrats to edge past Broome.
There are a few wild cards in the race, especially for Edwards. Though they have little chance of making the runoff, the two other Republicans — frequent candidate Steve Myers and newcomer Nathaniel Hearn — could pull enough votes to derail his effort. And a recent story in this newspaper recounted the East Baton Rouge Parish Republican Party's desperation at the last minute to find a candidate, hardly the solid foundation for a winning campaign.
How it will play out on Nov. 5 remains an open question. But one thing we know is that eyes, including Broome's, will be on that race to be runner-up.
Clarification: This column has been updated to note Eddie Rispone is now supporting Edwards.