NFL WEEK 8: THE 5 BEST BETS
NOTES: All spreads, money lines and over/under totals (as of Tuesday) are provided by DraftKings. Home team is listed in CAPS.
BYES: None
1, WASHINGTON (+2.5) over Chicago / Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
In the “most ridiculous line of the season to date” department, how in the world would anyone come to the conclusion the Bears should be favored here – much less by just shy of a field goal? My power ratings say this should be Washington -3, and this spread wouldn’t even look like this IN CHICAGO.
“Um, Jayden Daniels is hurt, dummy.”
If you think Daniels is missing a chance to play against Caleb Williams because of some sore ribs, then you should be feeding pigeons on Sunday instead of watching football. He’s playing and that AT BEST makes these two teams an even matchup on a neutral field.
Last week, I used the term (bet of the year), and lost by a half-point when my side lost its starting QB in the second quarter and missed a short field goal and an extra point. So I will stay away from terms like that in the future. However, I like this one as much as I like red beans on Monday, pizza and beer on Friday and a nice rare ribeye on Saturday.
PS, in the trends department, the Bears win in Landover last season was the first time they had won there since 2001, but overall the Redskins / Football Team / Commanders are 8-2 straight up in this series the past 20 years and 14-4 since 1989.
Score: Commanders 27, Bears 23 (Total: Over 44)
2, Philadelphia at CINCINNATI over 47.5 / Sunday at noon
I went into this pick thinking I was going to take Eagles at +2.5 as a best bet (and still will take it as a non-best bet), but then I took a look at some of the trends that backed me off of it.
Fun fact: There have been more ties in this series this century (two) than Eagles victories (one). And if that weren’t enough to have me not be gung ho on Philly, here’s Fun Fact 2: The Eagles have NEVER won in Cincinnati. As in never ever.
Granted it’s a small sample size (six games), but never? Really?
That being said, throughout the series, there have been quite a few high-scoring games, and these two both have been able to put up points this season in bunches. The Bengals, have scored 71 combined points in their last two home games, while this should be an defense Philly should have a great game against.
Score: Eagles (+2.5) 31, Bengals 27
3, PITTSBURGH (-6.5) over NY Giants / Monday at 7:15 p.m.
This would have been one spot higher, but it scares me just a bit that this might be my square play of the week. What does that mean, some of you might be asking … well, it means there’s a good chance I am on the same side with Aunt Mabel and Drunk Joe at the bar.
It also seems as if they’re begging me to take the Steelers here, and I guess I am going to oblige. The Giants are in the midst of major inner turmoil – oh, and they can’t score. Meanwhile, when the Steelers win, they win big. In fact, they have won by seven points or more in all five of their victories.
Lastly, power ratings have this at 7.5, and under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 12-5 overall the week before a bye with seven of those victories coming by seven or more points.
Score: Steelers 24, Giants 15 (Total: Over 36.5)
4, JACKSONVILLE (+4.5) over Green Bay / Sunday at noon
One would have thought I had learned my lesson with the Jaguars, who likely are one loss away from the end of Doug Pederson’s career in Jacksonville. But no … I am stubborn, and I have always been a fan of plays that don’t seem to make sense on the surface.
However, I like the way the Jags played last week in drubbing the lowly Patriots, and now they come home after a half-month in London. And over the past 7 seasons, they have either had a bye week or won the week after coming back.
This just feels like a tough spot for Green Bay, which had to sort of had to steal one from Houston last week, and this is sandwiched before hosting Detroit next week. UPSET ALERT! (Jags are +170 on the ML.)
Score: Jaguars 24, Packers 22 (Total: Under 49.5)
5, Carolina (+9) over DENVER / Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Going with three dogs for best bets is a bit scary, but this one is a case of one team being way way way too overrated. In no world should Denver be laying nine points to any team in the NFL (or maybe about eight or nine college teams).
I get they have played solid defense as of late, but Bo Nix has been anything but good despite inflated numbers last Thursday from playing the worst defensive unit in the league.
NOTE: This pick is contingent on Andy Dalton playing quarterback on Sunday and would have been my second best bet if I were 100-percent certain he was playing after he was involved in a car accident on Tuesday.
Score: Broncos 22, Panthers 17 (Total: Under 43.5)
SAINTS PICK at Los Angeles Chargers
How do you analyze a game like this that really only a sicko would bet on? With trends, I guess. The Saints have been dogs of 7 or more just eight times since the start of the 2006 season (which is sort of the modern era of this franchise).
In those eight games, New Orleans is 6-2 against the spread, although they lost their only game in the Dennis Allen era 13-0 to San Francisco in 2022 as a 9-point underdog.
That being said, if Derek Carr plays Sunday, this spread likely falls to -4.5 or so, which would render the entire first three paragraphs useless.
Simply put, it should be easy. The Saints don’t seem to care very much, and the Chargers defense should be able to tee off on an overmatched rookie quarterback in Spencer Rattler (if he starts). Conversely, I am not sure how the New Orleans defense will be able to stop JK Dobbins.
All that being said, picking games in the NFL is tough for a reason. I can’t blame Aunt Mabel for using a big chunk of her Social Security check on this one and saying to heck with pumpkin pie ingredients. It SHOULD be an easy game for the Bolts, who are coming off a tough loss in Arizona.
Not sure if Carr will play or not, but even if he doesn’t one would think this team at least has enough pride to show up. (Again, if you’re betting on this one, you might want to think about calling the hotline.)
Score: Chargers 26, Saints (+7) 20 (Total: Over 39.5)
OTHER PICKS
Thursday at 7:20 p.m.
LA RAMS (+2.5) 23, Minnesota 20 (Under 48)
Sunday at noon
NY Jets 19, NEW ENGLAND (+7) 14 (Under 41.5)
NOTE: My power ratings say this should be Jets -4, and honestly they have no business laying a touchdown to anyone. However, when I looked and saw the Jets won both games easily last season, it kept me from putting this in my best bets. I just can’t bet real money on the Patriots right now (but this screams home team covers in a division game against an overrated – and reeling – team).
Baltimore 20, CLEVELAND (+9) 17 (Under 44)
NOTE: This is another one that should have been an auto pick for me on the Browns, but I have been burned way too many times by them AND I have no idea how Cleveland will react to Jameis Winston as a starter with rumors of Myles Garrett being traded. Just a stay-away game. (But if I wasn’t scared of ghosts, I would be all over the Brownies, ha ha.)
PS Trends also favor Baltimore, which kept me away, as well. The Ravens are 21-7 overall since 2008 in the series and they’ve won by double digits seven times in 11 seasons.
MIAMI (-3) 30, Arizona 25 (Over 46)
NOTE: This is completely contingent on Tua starting, and if he doesn’t, it’s a no pick (win or lose).
HOUSTON (-5.5) 33, Indianapolis 20 (Over 46)
DETROIT 23, Tennessee (+11) 13 (Under 46)
NOTE: Even though we have told you how great Jared Goff has been as of late indoors, he is due for sort of a stinker. This could be it. I expect the Titans’ defense to at least hold down the Lions enough to cover.
Atlanta (-2.5) 22, TAMPA BAY 17 (Under 46)
NOTE: Another stay away, as Baker Mayfield will be without both Mike Evans AND Chris Godwin. But I don’t trust the Falcons enough on the road in a division game to make this a best bet.
Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
Buffalo 23, SEATTLE (+3) 21 (Under 47)
NOTE: The Bills have won 20 of their past 25 games against the NFC, but my power ratings have this at -1 AND the fact that Buffalo is playing its fourth road game in 5 weeks across the country, and this is a stay-away.
Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Kansas City 24, LAS VEGAS (+10) 20 (Over 41)
Sunday at 7:20 p.m.
SAN FRANCISCO (-4) 28, Dallas 20 (Over 46.5)
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HOW WE DOIN?
Note: TIES ARE NOT COUNTED IN MY RECORD, which could result in a different total of games in the “straight up” and “against the spread” categories, as well as with totals.
AGAINST THE SPREAD
Week 7 best bets: 2-3; Season 17-17 (.500). Week 7 all picks: 7-8; Season 48-52 (.480).
STRAIGHT UP (no spread)
Week 7: 11-4. Season: 63-41 (.606).
OVER/UNDER TOTALS
Week 7: 5-10. Season: 48-54 (.471).
SAINTS PICKS
Week 7 pick: Saints 20, Broncos 15. (Actual: Broncos 33, Saints 10.) Straight up: L, 4-3. Against spread (Saints +2.5): L, 3-4.
PREVIOUS COLUMNS
(click on week to view)
Week 7: 2-3 best bets; 7-8 ATS; 11-4 straight up; 5-10 over/unders
Week 6: 2-3 best bets; 9-5 ATS; 11-3 straight up; 10-4 over/unders
Week 5: 4-1 best bets; 5-7 ATS; 6-8 straight up; 3-11 over/unders
Week 4: 2-3 best bets; 7-7 ATS; 8-6 straight up; 7-7 over/unders
Week 3: 3-2 best bets; 9-6 ATS; 8-7 straight up; 8-7 over/unders
Week 2: 3-2 best bets; 8-8 ATS; 9-7 straight up; 8-7 over/unders
Week 1: 1-3 best bets; 3-11 ATS; 10-6 straight up; 7-8 over/unders